The upcoming elections in India (Keralam, West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry) come at a crucial time for the country. It in a way, serves as a mid-term election for the country as a whole and sets the tempo and pace for the run up to important elections next year and eventually to the 2029 General Election.
The authors of this publication wish to take you through the political and electoral scenarios in each state and more importantly, their implications on overall national politics. Post 2024, when the opposition put up a close fight to the BJP, the latter came back to consolidate its dominant position with convincing victories in Haryana, Maharashtra and Bihar. However, these victories against the backdrop of SIR and allegations of bias in the Election Commission have placed huge doubts on the future of democracy in this country and it is to be seen whether the opposition can withhold these attacks and regain some of the much needed momentum lost in the last two years.
Assam
Assam is an election to closely lookout for. The state’s political landscape has undergone a tectonic shift in the last decade. Himanta Biswa Sarma’s switch to the BJP, the subsequent rise of the party in the Northeast and the continuous weakening of the Congress, which once ruled the region with little worry have redrawn political lines in the state. This is the first assembly election since the 2023 delimitation, which is a matter of grave concern this time around. Critics argue that the delimitation, despite keeping the total number of seats constant, redrew the boundaries of the constituencies in such a manner as to benefit the ruling party. Lower Assam, with a higher Muslim population, saw Muslim-dominated seats come down from 35 to a mere 22, in addition to a lot of these seats being converted into SC/ST reserved seats, significantly affecting the ‘secular’ oppositions’ prospects.
This election has to be closely watched because of its implications too. BJP’s victory here, under the leadership of Himanta Biswa Sarma will provide voters’ approval to a new brand of politics. A fair chunk of BJP’s leaders, including the chief minister are imports from other parties, albeit from extremely opposing ideologies. These leaders, much like chameleons, have adopted a new identity quickly and effectively, even beating the original partymen of the BJP at their own game. Furthermore, Assam and Himanta have been at the core of the BJP’s rapid rise in the Northeast. This regional dominance, however, has increasingly relied on brazen political engineering, most notably the systematic, overnight poaching of opposition leaders that repeatedly leaves rivals scrambling and strips the democratic process of its sanctity. Add to this the Chief Minister’s highly aggressive campaign style, which frequently resorts to crass and overtly disrespectful language against his political rivals (Especially towards the Congress, a party he himself was once a part of), dragging public discourse to new lows. The fundamental question this election asks, therefore, is whether the electorate is actually okay with this. Will the voters rubber-stamp a brand of politics that seemingly operates entirely devoid of basic morals and ethics, or will there be a resounding pushback against a political culture that rewards pure opportunism and hostility over ideological conviction and decorum?
This election can be reduced to two different parts. Lower Assam, usually a stronghold for the Congress and AIUDF, presents a consolidated minority vote bank that now faces the brutal onslaught of the recent delimitation and a fiercely polarized narrative. Here, the ‘secular’ opposition is desperately fighting to hold the fort and minimize their anticipated losses.
The real kingmaker of this election, however, is Upper Assam. This region is the absolute epicenter of the state’s most burning issues: the protection of indigenous identity, the deeply contentious Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), and the National Register of Citizens (NRC). While the BJP is heavily pushing a narrative anchored in massive infrastructure investments and sweeping welfare promises, the opposition is banking on regional sentiment, framing the contest as an existential fight to safeguard Assamese culture. Add to this the volatile local demands, specifically the push for ST status by six ethnic communities and the long-standing agitation for higher daily wages among the massive tea garden workforce and the region becomes a highly unpredictable battleground. Ultimately, the political math can be reduced to Lower Assam dictating the margins, but Upper Assam decides whether Gaurav Gogoi or Himanta Biswa Sarma takes the throne in Dispur.
Kerala
In Kerala, a lot is at stake this time. It is a possibility of resurgence for someone, a maiden opportunity for the other and for the grand old man, it’s a final battle for survival.
The “grand old man” is Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan, who, like Amitabh in Kalki, is carrying the final reins of his creed.The left front,LDF, CPI(M) and leftist ideology in indian politics as a whole is fighting an existential battle. They hope to drag on till ‘Satyug’ comes in, which seems nowhere in sight. Losing this election would mean a deathbed for Leftist ideology in Indian politics, after the Arsenic poisoning they have been seeing since the past decade after heavy losses in Bengal assembly and LS polls.
Pinarayi’s face was central to their campaign last time. Its this time too, but more to the other side’s. UDF is banking a lot on the anti incumbency factor and also scrutinizing Pinarayi’s records, which shows economic crackholes(6 Lakh crore debt), systemic failure(youth moving outside in huge number for higher studies) and a rising unemployment rate.
For the UDF and congress, it is a chance for a comeback post the losses they have faced in the last few elections. Rahul Gandhi and Co. have been reeling after heavy defeats in Haryana,MH and Bihar. INC has not been able to deliver one decisive victory on their own in the last 2 years and has been a burden on its allies.
More than votes, they require self awareness of being in a tight spot in the other 3 states, lack of which is the key behind Modi’s exploits. Rahul’s idea of being the “chief” of INDIA alliance can only touch grass if his party actually drives an alliance(UDF here) to victory. The UDF saw a vote spike(38.3%) in the local body polls last year(higher than LDF), giving them a boost. The party still reels under internal strife with three major faces in run for probable leadership.(VD Satheesan,Chennithala and KC Venugopal)
Now i’ll not talk about Kerala, because it’s KeralaM. The pranksters who pulled off this prank have plans to spoil the party this time for the others. Relying on the ‘M’ in Keralam, they have the Modi factor and of course the “Muslim” factor. The BJP is still young in “god’s land”. For them lies an opportunity for establishing their footprint down south after the famous Thrissur win in 24’ LS polls.
Elections in the state are a multi-party affair. Currently 10 parties are in the LDF and 7 in UDF. Varied seat sharing across regions has been the key. Keralam sees 9 lakh voters less post SIR(insignificant compared to the 70 lakh deletions in neighbouring TN), with 40-49 being the largest voting age group. The election still remains a close contest.
BJP has been banking on its Hindutva ideology yet again, and it is working, though still less(11% votes in local body polls). It is bound to backfire in Muslim majority areas such as Malappuram. LDF significantly broke into congress’s historical muslim vote bank in these areas in 21’polls. LDF is also banking on Christian vote bank, which they cashed in last time, thanks to Jose K Mani’s party breaking away from UDF and consolidating Christian vote for the left. The Hindu votebank is BJP’s target, but is still expected to sway towards the other players.
The 9 April polls would determine who goes to power on 4th May,2026.
Tamil Nadu
Five years have passed since the DMK stormed to power in Tamil Nadu in 2021 after being relegated to the Opposition benches for a decade. Though there is widespread discontent against the incumbent government, most polls have the DMK’s Secular Progressive Alliance winning a second term against the NDA, which regrouped after temporarily splitting apart for the 2024 general elections. This election will also serve as the debut for the TVK, a new political outfit started by Tamil film star Vijay. Minor players like Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi are also to be looked out for in this rather fractured election.
This election also comes at the heels of a Special Intensive Review (SIR). Tamil Nadu saw major changes to its electoral roll in this exercise, after nearly 50 lakh voters were purged from the state’s rolls. Though initial estimates showed that up to 15% of voters were purged, the number shrunk to around 9% after re-registrations. Much like in other states, the Opposition showed concerns over the legitimacy of the process and the SIR’s proximity to the elections.
Let us first start by discussing the track record of the current government. The DMK, under MK Stalin, came to power in 2021 after spending a decade in the Opposition benches. The government has been rather successful in delivering on various welfare schemes; the state has also seen good macroeconomic growth and foreign investment over the past five years, with GDP growth often ahead of the national average. However, their lack of success in addressing their promises regarding education – more specifically regarding their opposition to NEET and NEP 2020, rampant corruption, and general anti-incumbency will prove to be a thorn on the DMK’s side. The DMK has also faced issues with law-and-order issues, especially with matters like the dozens of custodial deaths that occurred since 2022, political murders like that of BSP state leader K. Armstrong, and broader issues with crime.
After Jayalalitha’s death in 2016, the AIADMK saw an on-and-off power struggle between Edappadi K. Palaniswamy and O Panneerselvam to lead the party. This continued into their days in Opposition, with EPS ultimately consolidating power and removing the whip from OPS; Panneerselvam went on to join the DMK. The AIADMK has also reunited with the BJP for these elections after temporarily parting ways for the 2024 general elections. The general toxicity of the BJP brand in the state – largely due their Hindutva politics and perceived bias to the North – is something that will not help the AIADMK in these elections, but at a time where the party is rapidly gaining ground in the state, one must wonder how long this narrative will hold true.
This election also sees Vijay’s electoral debut with his political vehicle: the TVK. His long-awaited entry into politics, after a lot of posturing over the last decade, has seen a lot of voters disillusioned with the status quo flock to him. However, ideologically speaking, his proposals don’t differ from the current mainstream parties. In essence, what Vijay is offering is himself; he is banking on his star power and good will to court voters dissatisfied with existing options. Many also doubt his leadership abilities, seeing as how this is his first foray into electoral politics; the affairs surrounding the stampede at one of his rallies in Karur also raise concerns in this regard.
The uncertain nature of this election cannot be understated; polls are split on who will form government and how much vote-share and seats the TVK will capture. However, the prevailing consensus is that it will be an extremely close contest between the DMK and AIADMK, with the TVK capturing roughly 15% of votes and a handful of seats. Only time will tell, however, how this chaotic election will play out in reality.
West Bengal
Perhaps the most thrilling stuff this year after Dhurandhar the revenge, here we are with the West Bengal election. And of course, there are leftists whose time is over, there are “infiltrators” and…. You guessed it right, there is Narendra Modi.
The SIR(Special Intensive Revision) saw mass deletion of names(9 Million) from electoral rolls. The central government has passed this as an attempt to remove illegal Bangladeshi immigrants from the state. The opposition has been protesting against it as an attempt to delete minority voters. Out of the 9 Million,63 lakh have been marked as deceased/absentee voters. The remaining 27 Lakh have been deleted over “lack of documents” and their complaints are being scrutinized by local tribunals and the ECI.
Unlike Kerala, this election has little for the Left, which has seen better days here.
Unlike Tamil Nadu and Kerala, there is a lot at stake for the BJP here.
Unlike all other 3, this election has next to nothing for INC, which hit a rock bottom score of zero last time.
Mamata Banerjee’s government has been under fire for the last few years. Corruption cases are running into crores, the Murshidabad violence and the RG Kar rape case. Just like Mamata ignores national politics, she ignored all these cases and proceeded to give a “Humba bumba” speech, telling people how bad the BJP was for Bengal and is playing the “outsider” card fully. Even the BJP is playing the outsider card, except that the outsiders at their target are the deleted names. The left is going bonkers over this. The SIR would definitely lead to the removal of illegal immigrants and fake voters from the voter list. Still, a lot of cases have come up where the ECI(Election Commission of India) has come under fire for blind deletion of names and improper verification methods. As of now, there are 85 Muslim-dominated seats, including border districts like Malda and Murshidabad, where more deductions have been observed. Many of these saw close contests last time. Deletion of minority vote would definitely go in the saffron party’s favour.
BJP improved its seat share last time by eating into Congress and the Left’s seats. TMC hardly faced any damage. Winning this election needs breaking deep into Mamata’s vote bank. Modi and team have gone all out here and in Assam, playing the same cards and big names carrying out rallies and processions. Suvendu Adhikari is leading it from their side, while Banerjee still seems to humour her CM ambitions. For all its worth, INC can cash in on its old vote bank in seats like Behrampur and Malda and try to get a double-digit number this time around.
Tribal and border seats remain key battlegrounds here. So does northern Bengal. Historically driven by Maoist politics and currently by anti tmc sentiments, BJP is closely contesting on these seats. The tumultuous background of the election has set up a fiery battle between the BJP and the TMC for the stronghold of East India.
The Journal Club 
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